Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 35.677189 40.317349 45.781860 52.820604 61.849627 73.353987 89.689818
2025-05-11 29.248916 34.888943 42.209382 52.843621 68.778806 93.629845 140.569661
2025-05-18 24.926825 30.796378 38.930569 51.827079 73.723288 114.863603 222.638938
2025-05-25 22.257792 28.262795 37.033324 52.011964 80.556460 145.850947 415.165391
2025-06-01 20.154002 26.111829 35.163247 51.553554 86.001867 181.364894 932.082721
2025-06-08 18.461511 24.289621 33.419134 50.750065 90.371904 222.574441 3642.860825
2025-06-15 17.121679 22.815880 31.968055 50.068222 94.767181 276.112396 NaN
2025-06-22 16.061838 21.647216 30.834349 49.704155 99.938822 353.887241 NaN
2025-06-29 15.022317 20.401592 29.390237 48.346036 101.652466 425.897373 NaN
2025-07-06 14.700051 20.276931 29.903068 51.371170 119.680910 828.873081 NaN
2025-07-13 13.969690 19.404642 28.925178 50.720929 124.483820 1231.297358 NaN
2025-07-20 13.439208 18.823139 28.422057 51.110506 134.206015 2590.535356 NaN
2025-07-27 12.972237 18.321737 28.032073 51.760759 146.586379 13717.678425 NaN
2025-08-03 12.498253 17.772548 27.488085 51.899520 157.285951 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 11.971045 17.093761 26.615860 50.961613 161.512540 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 11.589749 16.648391 26.175102 51.162726 173.770884 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 11.188387 16.141252 25.557699 50.725691 181.851558 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.792679 15.621478 24.868823 49.947168 187.048742 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 10.436148 15.153731 24.252344 49.284628 193.036070 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 10.128467 14.759136 23.760873 48.930612 202.025151 NaN NaN
2025-09-21 9.772672 14.259045 23.005444 47.607273 200.538669 NaN NaN
2025-09-28 9.732042 14.338612 23.518041 50.554908 251.894056 NaN NaN
2025-10-05 9.459344 13.969524 23.004693 49.921664 260.326134 NaN NaN